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ORSIVA

Orbital risk & liability intelligence for satellite operators

Orbital Risk · Sustainability · Intelligence · Valuation Analytics

When should a
satellite leave orbit?

ORSIVA answers that question.

Continuous risk and liability intelligence — per satellite, per fleet. Built for mid-tier LEO operators (10–300 satellites) and owners of single high-value assets. The ORSIVA Score tells you when to act, what it costs to wait, and the evidence behind the call.

See the Iridium-33 backtest ↗
5yr
New regulatory
disposal mandate
40–70%
of LEO payload mass meets
disposal guidelines
~40 mo
Earlier INITIATE flag on
Iridium-33 (backtest)
0
Commands sent to your
spacecraft — advisory only
Sources: 5-year LEO disposal rule — FCC Second Report & Order, FCC 22-74 (2022), 47 CFR §25.114(d)(14) and §25.283; ESA Space Debris Mitigation Policy (2023). LEO post-mission disposal compliance ~40–70% of payload mass at end-of-life — ESA Space Environment Report 2025. Backtest lead time: ORSIVA retrospective run — full working on the backtest page.
Validated Iridium-33 / Cosmos-2251 collision (Feb 2009) — ORSIVA flags Cosmos-2251 INITIATE from day one (defunct, no fuel), Iridium-33 INITIATE ~40 months before impact. View backtest ↗
The Challenge

End-of-life is a decision, not a checkbox

Operators have tracking and conjunction alerts. What they lack is a structured way to decide when a satellite should leave orbit — weighing remaining value against rising risk and a hard regulatory deadline.

It is an optimal-stopping problem with money on both sides: deorbit too early and you lose revenue; too late and you face breach, collision risk, liability and debris. And when nobody puts a price on waiting, the default is delay.

I
Engineering
Monitors fuel and subsystem health — but ignores economic value and regulatory timing constraints.
II
Compliance
Tracks static rules (25-year, now 5-year) without dynamic, stochastic risk — and the rules keep changing.
III
Finance
Models depreciation but lacks orbital context — and never prices what each month of delay costs.
Result: disconnected silos, no unified model, unpriced delay — and compounding liability.
Request Technical Brief
How It Works

One question.
One clear answer.

Point ORSIVA at a satellite. It scores the risk and the economics of the timing, and returns a verdict you can act on — and defend.

72
/ 100
ORSIVA Score
Sample asset · LEO
Decision
Initiate disposalHigh risk · regulatory deadline approaching
Economics
Act within ~1 monthValue-at-risk $1.6M · delaying costs more than acting
Cost of delay
~$90k / month deferredEvery month of inaction increases expected liability — acting now costs less than waiting
0 · Continue — safe to keep operatingAct now · 100
Read the score in one direction: lower is safer, higher means act sooner. This sample sits at 72 — well inside the “act now” band.

Every verdict is logged and audit-ready for regulators, insurers and operators. ORSIVA recommends — the operator always decides.

Approach

The decision layer for a satellite's final orbit.

Tracking data, regulation and financial exposure become one scored recommendation — with the full working shown behind it.

01
Decide
A scored, explainable recommendation on exactly when to act.
02
Quantify
The economics of the timing — the optimal moment, and the value at stake.
03
Act
A clear verdict with the cost of delay per month, so the decision is easy to make and easy to defend.
The ORSIVA Score
A single 0–100 score — lower is safer, banded from CONTINUE to ACT NOW.
Always current
FCC, ESA, IADC and UK rules as versioned data — AI flags changes, a human approves them.
Sustainable by design
Every verdict values a cleaner orbit.
Built For

Decision intelligence the whole orbital economy can trust.

For
Operators
Mid-tier LEO fleets & single high-value assets
Optimal end-of-life timing
Reduced liability exposure
Audit-ready decision trail
For
Regulators
Rule-cited, version-stamped verdicts
Standardised reporting
Machine-readable audit logs
For
Insurers
Fleet-level disposal-risk distributions
Orbital-physics inputs for pricing
No operator decision data shared
For
Investors
Sustainability infrastructure
ESG-aligned governance tooling
Regulatory-tailwind exposure
Development Roadmap

What comes next

I
Built & running
Live now
The full decision engine, fleet risk matrix, orbital console and backtest mode are operational — risk and economics scored into the ORSIVA Score, plus an AI regulatory-intelligence engine. Operators can upload real mass, cross-section and fuel to sharpen Δv budgets and decay estimates.
II
Live data & first pilots
In progress · Q4 2026
Live ingestion from CelesTrak and Space-Track, and the first design-partner pilots — ORSIVA run on real fleets in shadow mode, alongside existing processes.
III
Standardisation
Ongoing
Working with agencies and insurers toward standardised end-of-life reporting and a cross-operator coordination layer.
Work With Us

Help us shape the first version.

We're choosing a small group of partners to test ORSIVA against real fleets, real regulation and real decisions. If end-of-life is a problem you live with — or a field you study — we want to build it with you.

01
Design & Pilot Partners
Operators who'll run ORSIVA against their own fleet and steer the roadmap. Early partners get direct influence over the product and preferential terms.
02
Advisors & Mentors
Operators, regulators and decision-science experts willing to lend judgement and open doors — high-trust roles, recognised in equity.
03
Regulators & Insurers
Bodies shaping end-of-life standards and pricing disposal risk — partner with us to shape ORSIVA's outputs so they are audit-ready and useful for pricing from the start.
Start a conversation
FAQ

Questions, answered straight.

Does ORSIVA control or command my satellite?
No. ORSIVA is advisory-only decision intelligence — it recommends when to act and shows the full working behind it. The operator always makes and executes the decision. It sits on top of your flight dynamics; it does not replace them.
What data do you need to score a satellite?
A public catalogue entry (TLE) is enough to start. Operators can optionally add real mass, cross-section and fuel to sharpen Δv budgets and decay estimates — the more you provide, the tighter the verdict.
How is the ORSIVA Score calculated?
It combines disposal risk and the economics of timing into a single 0–100 score — lower is safer, higher means act sooner — with every input logged and auditable. The full method is set out in a technical brief, available on request.
Is it aligned with regulation?
ORSIVA encodes the frameworks that govern end-of-life — the FCC 5-year rule, IADC guidelines, ESA debris-mitigation requirements and UK licensing conditions — as versioned rules. Changes are flagged by AI and approved by a human, and every verdict cites the rule and version it used. That supports your compliance planning; it is not a legal determination, which stays with you and your regulator.
What stage is ORSIVA at — can I pilot it?
The decision engine, fleet risk matrix, orbital console and backtest are live in preview now. We're selecting a small group of design-partner operators to run ORSIVA against real fleets in shadow mode. If that's you, start a conversation.
Contact

Ready to make the right call on orbit?

We work with operators, regulators and insurers. If you run a mid-tier LEO fleet or a single high-value asset, we want to hear from you.

Email
contact@orsiva.space
Web
orsiva.space
Schedule a Call
Book a 30-min slot ↗
Request Technical Brief
Request a Demo

See ORSIVA
in action.

Send us a short email — tell us about your fleet, orbital regime, and what you’d like to see. We’ll prepare a tailored demonstration of ORSIVA applied to your satellites, and send you a password for the live console so you can explore it yourself — load the demo fleet, run the ORSIVA Score, and inspect the loss model and Δv budgets.

Request a demo Request Technical Brief
Contact
contact@orsiva.space · We respond within one business day.
Privacy

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Your rights

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Last updated: September 2026